Archive for the ‘Politics’ Category

Talk about a selection bias…

Friday, May 21st, 2010

The elections are due next week in The Czech Republic.  Election polls, which are supposed to give unbiased estimates of voting intentions, give the center-right parties about half of the seats in the parliament, and the left wingers the other half.

What strikes me is that online poll at idnes.cz, widely popular centrist online newspaper,  gave 100 percent of the seats in parliament  to the right wing parties, that is all left wing parties fell short of the  5 percent threshold, which is required to enter the parliament.

I did not think an average internet user is so UNREPRESENTATIVE of an average citizen…

p.s. Of course the wealthier (more developed) a country is, the less different an average citizen and an average internet user is.

Obama & Nobel II

Sunday, October 11th, 2009

Bellow are data from Google Trends on how often is given term searched.

Term: Nobel Prize – People care what kind of prize Obama actualy won.
nobel_prize
Term:Nobel Prize Money – What they care more for is how much cash he got.
obama
Term: Obama Charity – What they care most for is what the hell is he gonna do with that money!
charity
For the last graph: I was looking at some random combinations of the term “Obama” + “word”(for example: Obama radio, Obama car, Obama underpants) and they’ve increased as well after the Nobel Peace Prize announcement, but by a magnitude less than “Obama Charity”. The bottom line is that Obama should not contribute the prize money towards his retirement savings but use it for some charitable purpose!.

Didn’t see that coming!

Friday, October 9th, 2009

obama-laughing-thumb-275x354-7651Didn’t expect Obama to get the Nobel in Peace! I guess I have a chance to get a Nobel in Econ in 2009 after all! It would be for tireless efforts to write a good paper ( to be published probably, well maybe, well hopefully, but certainly in the future)…

Well, let’s hope people are going to take him and his peace efforts more seriously…

Update: I’ve learned that Mankiw is making the same point as me - Grad student winning the Nobel in Econ. – I hope I was the first one to point that out!

Machine gun and a miniskirt

Sunday, October 4th, 2009

2621856-pekingem-pochodovali-vojaci-lidova-republika-slavi-60And the big fashion hit for the fall of 2009 is… Machine gun and a miniskirt! Guess where the following picture was taken:

  1. Fashion Show, Milan
  2. Fashion Show, Paris
  3. 60th anniversary of China

(regardless of what one thinks about the Soviet-like military parades organized in China, these girls look HOT!) :-)

Good old protectionism…

Monday, September 14th, 2009

China unexpectedly ratcheted up pressure on the United States in a widening trade dispute on Sunday evening, taking steps toward imposing tariffs on American exports of automotive products and chicken meat in retaliation for President Obama’s decision late Friday to levy tariffs on tires.

NyTimes 13/9/09

I am not sure whether imposing tariffs on (unimportant) products will solve the US-China trade deficit. It will surely wake up waves of stupid (irrational) nationalism, something you don’t want before the G-20 meeting.

On the other hand there is no question something has to be done about the US-China trade deficit (or surplus, depending on what shore of the Ocean you stand). The ball is in China’s court though (Read: China needs to float its currency.).

The US needs to pressure Chineese government to float, while giving them a chance to justify such step to the public, starting petty tariff wars is not the way to go…

What kind of policy does the Czech Republic need in the Crisis?

Tuesday, August 18th, 2009

cdsAll over the world policy makers are frantically forging new measures to lessen the impact of the crisis. Government in our small, open, relatively poor (about 35th richest country in the world – GDP p.c. in PPP) has been rightly doing very little. Any kind of expansionary measure would have very little impact in the country itself and would come at tremendous price as the budget deficit is already extremely large and costs of borrowing are significantly up.

The IMF (WEO 2009) defines two main criteria in the CEE (Central Eastern Europe) that affect performance during the crisis and the speed of the recovery.

1) the proportion of debt in foreign currencies
2) the monetary policy regime

The first one is very low in the Czech Republic (see enclosed graph). The second one is flexible. The country should be amongst the first to recover, or better should recover as soon as the Western Europe recovers. To sum up, in my opinion the best the government can do in response to the crisis would be to “sit back and enjoy the ride”. The best service to the country would be to curb the budget deficits, the preliminary one for 2010 amounts to approx. 7% of GDP, which is outrageous given absence of any significant fiscal expansion.

Havel for Bloomberg – Lecture by a man who is not fit to lecture anyone

Monday, June 22nd, 2009

Vaclav Havel, former president and anti-communist dissident is (from my personal experience) still highly respected in the West. He gave a critical interview for Bloomberg this past week, criticizing amongst other things the state in which is Czech Society twenty years after the Revolution. He said:

“The moral code is something unwritten but understood about what is proper and what is improper, what is right, what is wrong…“

That all sounds very nice, in fact I agree with that, I am just not sure whether man who was cheating on his dying wife is fit to lecture anyone on what the moral code is…

Original article can be found here:

http://www.ceskenoviny.cz/tema/index_view.php?id=383343&id_seznam=2015

Mistakes in Obama’s Cairo Speech (to be continued…)

Wednesday, June 17th, 2009

I have read Obama’s Cairo speech, I have read it very carefully and I didn’t like it… To start with, there are the two famous factual mistakes.

First one is the claim that “nearly 7 million” Muslims live in the US. Based on CIA World Factbook (Or just use Wikipedia Mr. Obama) the number is 1,8 million.

Second one is the reference to Moorish Spain. “We see it in the history of Andalusia and Cordoba during the Inquisition.” The Moors ruled Spain for eight centuries until 1492. Considering Spanish Inquisition was founded in 1478, there is only 14 years overlap (which is nothing).

I have an alternative explanation: I think what he might be referring to is relatively peaceful coexistence of different races and religions under Moors in contrast to the later terrors of the Inquisition. But this makes no sense! You can’t compare religious fanatics like the Inquisition with anything. They’re not representative of Christianity, same way as Sharia law, enforced by Talibs in Afghanistan and now in parts of Pakistan, is not representative of Islam.

Finally, I didn’t like Obama’s reference to Islam paving the way for Europe’s Renaissance. I am no historian, but I would say that he is deliberately forgetting a big part of the picture. Renaissance was a rediscovery of the classical that is Greek and Roman wisdom. Mentioning only Islam (though important it was) is like during a speech at Michelin (or Continental, Pirelli…) saying: “There is no car without wheels!”. True, but there is also no car without an engine, without seats, without a steering wheel, without a gear stick, without a windshield, without… You are deliberatelly leaving important information out in order to overemphasize one fact.

It’s like going to Louvre and seeing only Mona Lisa…

I didn’t agree with many of his opinions, but more on that tomorrow.

The quest to eradicate extremist parties

Thursday, June 11th, 2009

I am not sure about the situation in the Western part of the EU, but in the East radical parties are on the rise.

Now, when I say radical, I don’t mean those parasite-like populists whose program is based on hate towards immigrants, but real radical. Radicals, whose programs brings back (bad) memories of the 1930’s.

And when I say on the rise, I mean that they got slightly above 1 % in past week’s Elections to the EU Parliament. Given how disciplined their voters are (they always vote) and that only 25% of the population did vote in the elections the real support of  Delnicka strana (Worker’s party) Czech radical party, which openly endorses National Socialism falls to approx. 0, 25 %. That’s at least in my eyes nothing to worry about.

The majority society has evidently different opinion. Extremist parties are seen as a threat not only to the development of the country but to democracy itself. There is a strong lobby to outlaw anyone who is on the far right side of the political spectra (read: National Socialists). As hinted above the argument is that they pose a threat to democracy and/or that their programs are racist (which is illegal).

I think the second argument is valid, if one of the principles of modern democratic society is equality between people, you must not praise inferiority of one part of the society. To put it differently, modern democracy has certain principles, if you want to campaign in the framework of modern democracy you have to respect them.

I don’t think the first argument makes sense though. Democracy is translated as a Rule of people. Starting from a narrow group of man in the Ancient Athens to basically everyone above certain age limit nowadays, understanding who “People” eligible to rule are has changed significantly over the course of time.

If those eligible to vote want to vote for National Socialists (Communists or similar sick bastards) who pose a threat to democracy, I believe they have a right to do so. If people decide that they want to end “The Rule of People” (democracy), I believe their decision should be respected, because if it is not, then by definition they can’t be those who rule.

I don’t think I would have written same things had I lived in the 1930’s. I think present state of the World allows me to argue for principles. If some sick party (communists, National Socialist like parties etc.) wins in elections in country where I am currently located, I will just pack my stuff and leave the next morning. I think those with intelligence above the intelligence of communist/National Socialist voters will do the same… Such luxury was hardly possible between and shortly after the World Wars.